11 January, 2023

Overall risk level: 4

Overall: 4 High

FAT の　ライアン：

雪崩心配している。

日本語の記事がなくてすみません。 私は今、スキーシーズン直前で準備がとても忙しいです。 DeepLという翻訳サイトがとてもクオリティが良いので、使ってみて下さい: [https://www.deepl.com/translator]

It has been a while since my last post. Apologies. Last post was generally correct with stability improving allowing me to ski big lines high in the alpine in very nice stable conditions aside from the standard loose snow avalanche risk.

In the last post I also mentioned that I assumed stability would get worse, i.e. avalanche risk would increase with warming temperatures. I think this is correct especially in regards to tomorrow with the FL rising to 750m in Furano area.

On the 7th, light fluffy snow fell with low windspeed. Yesterday/ last night (20230110 layer) the temperature increase leading to more cohesive snow. Today, while touring up to 1200m in the Yubari Mountains, I noticed slabby conditions on the E slopes and blowing snow.

I think there are now slabs in the high alpine on E aspects with the less dense 20230107 later underneath, so it is not good that the density profile is upside down in the upper 2 layers of the snowpack. I am not concerned about layers below this.

Tomorrow when it gets warm, there will be a dangerous avalanche cycle especially on the loaded steep SE aspects at all evelations. There is not so much loose snow in the low elevation band so not as bad for that reason.

Glide cracks will also be releasing as it gets warmer.

Tomorrow, I will try to stay out of terrain traps and steep terrain, while staying above the FL to manage the risks.

Have fun and be safe tomorrow while the avalanche risk is rapidly increasing.

Alpine

4 High

Alpine risk level: 4

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Tree Line

4 High

Tree line risk level: 4

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Below Tree Line

4 High

Below tree line risk level:

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Risk level definitions from avalanche.org, with permission.

Glide
Avalanche Problem #1:

Glide

Glide cracks will release causing destructive avalanches as temperatures warm, especially in the low elevations.

Dangerous Aspects:NSENESENWSWWAlpineTree LineBelow Tree Line
Wind Slab
Avalanche Problem #2:

Wind Slab

Wind slabs on high alpine slopes and some mid elevation slopes

Dangerous Aspects:NSENESENWSWWAlpineTree LineBelow Tree Line
Wet Loose
Avalanche Problem #3:

Wet Loose

Dangerous Aspects:NSENESENWSWWAlpineTree LineBelow Tree Line

Avalanche problem diagrams courtesy of avalanche.org

A slope in the high alpine on 20230107 in the Yubar mountains showing the low density snow that fell with low windspeed that is currently directly beneath the new wind slabs that formed today and yesterday.
Screenshot from 11 January, 2023
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