29 December, 2022

Overall risk level: 3

Overall: 3 Considerable

Ryan from FAT:

日本語の記事がなくてすみません。

私は今、スキーシーズン直前で準備がとても忙しいです。

DeepLという翻訳サイトがとてもクオリティが良いので、使ってみて下さい: https://www.deepl.com/translator

Last night a new storm cycle began. Weather forecasts suggest that it will be snowing most of the time until tomorrow evening (20221230).

Avalanche risk currently and over the next few days will likely be in this new 20221228 layer. i.e. between the old, dense snow and the current new snow.

This new snow falling is forecast to be cold and dry. I think it may not bond well initially and there will certainly be a risk of loose dry avalanches running easily on the old dense snow (20221228) in steep terrain. This will become a bigger issue as the snow continues to accumulate.

There will likely be a risk of storm slab on all aspects and elevations, with most risk on the mid and higher elevation E and SE slopes due to forecast W and NW winds during the storm.

The 31st will be a beautiful day, but I will be sure to check the stability of new snow on the old snow (20221228 layer) before skiing any steep, complex avalanche terrain.

Alpine

3 Considerable

Alpine risk level: 3

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.


Tree Line

3 Considerable

Tree line risk level: 3

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.


Below Tree Line

3 Considerable

Below tree line risk level:

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snow pack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Risk level definitions from avalanche.org, with permission.

Dry Loose
Avalanche Problem #1:

Dry Loose

This new snow falling is forecast to be cold and dry. I think it may not bond well initially and there will certainly be a risk of loose dry avalanches running easily on the old dense snow (20221228) in steep terrain. This will become a bigger issue as the snow continues to accumulate.

Dangerous Aspects:NSENESENWSWWAlpineTree LineBelow Tree Line

Storm Slab
Avalanche Problem #2:

Storm Slab

There will likely be a risk of storm slab on all aspects and elevations, with most risk on the mid and higher elevation E and SE slopes due to forecast W and NW winds during the storm.

Dangerous Aspects:NSENESENWSWWAlpineTree LineBelow Tree Line

Wind Slab
Avalanche Problem #3:

Wind Slab

There will likely be a risk of storm slab on all aspects and elevations, with most risk on the mid and higher elevation E and SE slopes due to forecast W and NW winds during the storm.

Dangerous Aspects:NSENESENWSWWAlpineTree LineBelow Tree Line

Avalanche problem diagrams courtesy of avalanche.org

Screenshot from 29 December, 2022
Screenshot from 29 December, 2022
Screenshot from 29 December, 2022
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